Chapman, Sandra C., Stainforth, David Alan and Watkins, Nicholas W. (2013) On estimating local long-term climate trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Volume 371 (Number 1991). Article number 20120287. doi:10.1098/rsta.2012.0287 ISSN 1364-503X.

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Abstract

Climate sensitivity is commonly taken to refer to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Evaluating this variable remains of significant scientific interest, but its global nature makes it largely irrelevant to many areas of climate science, such as impact assessments, and also to policy in terms of vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Here, we focus on local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about how local climate has changed since the middle of the nineteenth century. Taking the perspective of climate as a constantly changing distribution, we evaluate the relative changes between different quantiles of such distributions and between different geographical locations for the same quantiles. We show how the observational data can provide guidance on trends in local climate at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impact or policy endeavours. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. The mathematical basis is presented for two methods of extracting these local trends from the data. The two methods are compared first using surrogate data, to clarify the methods and their uncertainties, and then using observational surface temperature time series from four locations across Europe.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Physics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Meteorology, Meteorology -- Observations, Climatology, Climatology -- Observations, Climatic changes -- Research
Journal or Publication Title:	Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Publisher:	The Royal Society Publishing
ISSN:	1364-503X
Official Date:	28 May 2013
Dates:	Date Event 28 May 2013 Published
Volume:	Volume 371
Number:	Number 1991
Page Range:	Article number 20120287
DOI:	10.1098/rsta.2012.0287
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	24 December 2015
Date of first compliant Open Access:	24 December 2015
Funder:	Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Science and Technology Facilities Council (Great Britain) (STFC), Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain) (ESRC) , Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (NERC)

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