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“Experts” who beat the odds are probably just lucky

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Denrell, Jerker (2013) “Experts” who beat the odds are probably just lucky. Harvard Business Review, Volume 91 (Number 4). ISSN 0017-8012.

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Official URL: http://hbr.org/2013/04/experts-who-beat-the-odds-a...

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Abstract

The finding: People who successfully foresee an unusual event tend to be wrong about the future over the long run.

The research: Working with Christina Fang of the Stern School of Business, Warwick Business School’s Jerker Denrell analyzed years of experts’ quarterly forecasts for interest rates and inflation, which had been reported by the Wall Street Journal. People whose predictions were most in line with conventional wisdom proved the most accurate overall. But those who made contrarian predictions that paid off big once or twice were viewed as the real market sages—even though their forecasts were incorrect more often than not. Follow-up lab studies confirmed that people who make wild but successful bets are remembered for those hits—but on average are the worst predictors.

Item Type: Journal Article
Divisions: Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science
Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Journal or Publication Title: Harvard Business Review
Publisher: Harvard Business School Publishing
ISSN: 0017-8012
Official Date: April 2013
Dates:
DateEvent
April 2013Published
Volume: Volume 91
Number: Number 4
Status: Not Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access

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