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“Experts” who beat the odds are probably just lucky
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Denrell, Jerker (2013) “Experts” who beat the odds are probably just lucky. Harvard Business Review, Volume 91 (Number 4). ISSN 0017-8012.
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Official URL: http://hbr.org/2013/04/experts-who-beat-the-odds-a...
Abstract
The finding: People who successfully foresee an unusual event tend to be wrong about the future over the long run.
The research: Working with Christina Fang of the Stern School of Business, Warwick Business School’s Jerker Denrell analyzed years of experts’ quarterly forecasts for interest rates and inflation, which had been reported by the Wall Street Journal. People whose predictions were most in line with conventional wisdom proved the most accurate overall. But those who made contrarian predictions that paid off big once or twice were viewed as the real market sages—even though their forecasts were incorrect more often than not. Follow-up lab studies confirmed that people who make wild but successful bets are remembered for those hits—but on average are the worst predictors.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School |
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| Journal or Publication Title: | Harvard Business Review | ||||
| Publisher: | Harvard Business School Publishing | ||||
| ISSN: | 0017-8012 | ||||
| Official Date: | April 2013 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Volume 91 | ||||
| Number: | Number 4 | ||||
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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