Lythgoe, Katrina A., Pellis, Lorenzo and Fraser, Christophe (2013) Is HIV short-sighted? Insights from a multistrain nested model. Evolution, Volume 67 (Number 10). pp. 2769-2782. doi:10.1111/evo.12166 ISSN 0014-3820.

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Abstract

An important component of pathogen evolution at the population level is evolution within hosts. Unless evolution within hosts is very slow compared to the duration of infection, the composition of pathogen genotypes within a host is likely to change during the course of an infection, thus altering the composition of genotypes available for transmission as infection progresses. We develop a nested modeling approach that allows us to follow the evolution of pathogens at the epidemiological level by explicitly considering within-host evolutionary dynamics of multiple competing strains and the timing of transmission. We use the framework to investigate the impact of short-sighted within-host evolution on the evolution of virulence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and find that the topology of the within-host adaptive landscape determines how virulence evolves at the epidemiological level. If viral reproduction rates increase significantly during the course of infection, the viral population will evolve a high level of virulence even though this will reduce the transmission potential of the virus. However, if reproduction rates increase more modestly, as data suggest, our model predicts that HIV virulence will be only marginally higher than the level that maximizes the transmission potential of the virus.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QR Microbiology Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	HIV infections, AIDS (Disease), Molecular biology, Pathogenic microorganisms, Virulence (Microbiology)
Journal or Publication Title:	Evolution
Publisher:	Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
ISSN:	0014-3820
Official Date:	October 2013
Dates:	Date Event October 2013 Published
Volume:	Volume 67
Number:	Number 10
Page Range:	pp. 2769-2782
DOI:	10.1111/evo.12166
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	25 December 2015
Date of first compliant Open Access:	25 December 2015
Funder:	Wellcome Trust (London, England), Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Royal Society (Great Britain), L'Oréal (Firm)

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