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Is HIV short-sighted? Insights from a multistrain nested model
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Lythgoe, Katrina A., Pellis, Lorenzo and Fraser, Christophe (2013) Is HIV short-sighted? Insights from a multistrain nested model. Evolution, Volume 67 (Number 10). pp. 2769-2782. doi:10.1111/evo.12166 ISSN 0014-3820.
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WRAP_Pellis_evo12166.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1120Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/evo.12166
Abstract
An important component of pathogen evolution at the population level is evolution within hosts. Unless evolution within hosts is very slow compared to the duration of infection, the composition of pathogen genotypes within a host is likely to change during the course of an infection, thus altering the composition of genotypes available for transmission as infection progresses. We develop a nested modeling approach that allows us to follow the evolution of pathogens at the epidemiological level by explicitly considering within-host evolutionary dynamics of multiple competing strains and the timing of transmission. We use the framework to investigate the impact of short-sighted within-host evolution on the evolution of virulence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and find that the topology of the within-host adaptive landscape determines how virulence evolves at the epidemiological level. If viral reproduction rates increase significantly during the course of infection, the viral population will evolve a high level of virulence even though this will reduce the transmission potential of the virus. However, if reproduction rates increase more modestly, as data suggest, our model predicts that HIV virulence will be only marginally higher than the level that maximizes the transmission potential of the virus.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | HIV infections, AIDS (Disease), Molecular biology, Pathogenic microorganisms, Virulence (Microbiology) | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Evolution | ||||
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd. | ||||
ISSN: | 0014-3820 | ||||
Official Date: | October 2013 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Volume 67 | ||||
Number: | Number 10 | ||||
Page Range: | pp. 2769-2782 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1111/evo.12166 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 25 December 2015 | ||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 25 December 2015 | ||||
Funder: | Wellcome Trust (London, England), Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), Royal Society (Great Britain), L'Oréal (Firm) |
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