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Vaccination against Foot-and-mouth disease : do initial conditions affect its benefit?
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Porphyre, Thibaud, Auty, Harriet K., Tildesley, Michael J., Gunn, George J. and Woolhouse, M. E. J., (Mark E. J.) (2013) Vaccination against Foot-and-mouth disease : do initial conditions affect its benefit? PLOS ONE, Volume 8 (Number 10). Article number e77616. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0077616 ISSN 1932-6203.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0077616
Abstract
When facing incursion of a major livestock infectious disease, the decision to implement a vaccination programme is made at the national level. To make this decision, governments must consider whether the benefits of vaccination are sufficient to outweigh potential additional costs, including further trade restrictions that may be imposed due to the implementation of vaccination. However, little consensus exists on the factors triggering its implementation on the field. This work explores the effect of several triggers in the implementation of a reactive vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease. In particular, we tested whether changes in the location of the incursion and the delay of implementation would affect the epidemiological benefit of such a policy in the context of Scotland. To reach this goal, we used a spatial, premises-based model that has been extensively used to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation procedures in Great Britain. The results show that the decision to vaccinate, or not, is not straightforward and strongly depends on the underlying local structure of the population-at-risk. With regards to disease incursion preparedness, simply identifying areas of highest population density may not capture all complexities that may influence the spread of disease as well as the benefit of implementing vaccination. However, if a decision to vaccinate is made, we show that delaying its implementation in the field may markedly reduce its benefit. This work provides guidelines to support policy makers in their decision to implement, or not, a vaccination-to-live policy when facing epidemics of infectious livestock disease.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR180 Immunology S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) S Agriculture > SF Animal culture |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Foot-and-mouth disease -- Great Britain, Foot-and-mouth disease -- Epidemiology, Foot-and-mouth disease -- Vaccination -- Great Britain -- Evaluation | ||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | PLOS ONE | ||||
| Publisher: | Public Library of Science | ||||
| ISSN: | 1932-6203 | ||||
| Official Date: | 11 September 2013 | ||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | Volume 8 | ||||
| Number: | Number 10 | ||||
| Page Range: | Article number e77616 | ||||
| DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0077616 | ||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||
| Funder: | Scotland. Scottish Government | ||||
| Grant number: | UEH/851/11 |
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