Fiedler, K., Kutzner, F. and Vogel, T. (2013) Pseudocontingencies : logically unwarranted but smart inferences. Current Directions in Psychological Science, Volume 22 (Number 4). pp. 324-329. doi:10.1177/0963721413480171 ISSN 0963-7214.

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Abstract

The ability to extract statistical contingencies (e.g., between cause and effect, between response and feedback) is commonly presupposed as a basic module of adaptive behavior. In reality, however, stimulus input rarely contains the complete sets of correlated attributes required to assess the actual contingencies. Instead, cognitive inferences often rely on a base-rate-driven pseudocontingency rule, which links the more (or less) frequent level of one variable to the more (or less) frequent level of the other variable. Empirical evidence shows that logically unwarranted pseudocontingency inferences override genuine contingencies across many research paradigms. Although pseudocontingencies can be severely misleading, they also provide a useful proxy that accurately predicts existing contingencies most of the time.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School > Behavioural Science Faculty of Social Sciences > Warwick Business School
Journal or Publication Title:	Current Directions in Psychological Science
Publisher:	Sage Publications Ltd.
ISSN:	0963-7214
Official Date:	August 2013
Dates:	Date Event August 2013 Published
Volume:	Volume 22
Number:	Number 4
Page Range:	pp. 324-329
DOI:	10.1177/0963721413480171
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Restricted or Subscription Access

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