Pino, Francisco J. and Vidal-Robert, Jordi (2014) Habemus Papam? : polarization and conflict in the papal states. Working Paper. University of Warwick. Department of Economics. CAGE Online Working Paper Series, Volume 2014 (Number 189). (Unpublished)

Preview

PDF (Working paper) WRAP_189-2014_j_vidal-robert.pdf - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (1284Kb) | Preview

Request Changes to record.

Abstract

We study the effect of divisions within the elite on the probability of internal conflict in the Papal States between 1295 and 1846. We assemble a new database using information on cardinals that participated in conclaves during this period, and construct measures of polarization and fractionalization based on the cardinals' places of birth. The deaths of popes and cardinals provide plausible exogenous variation in the timing of the conclave and the composition of the College of Cardinals, which we exploit to analyze the causal effect of a divided conclave on conflict. We find that an increase of one standard deviation in our measure of polarization raised the likelihood of internal conflict by between 2 and 3 percent in a given year and by up to 15 percent in a given papacy. The effect is largest in the initial years after the conclave, to gradually vanish over time. Cardinals' influence on the politics of the Papal States decreased after reforms introduced between 1586 and 1588. Our measure of religious productivity, however, is negatively and significantly linked to polarization in the post-reform period. These reforms were successful in shifting the effect of divisions among the elite of one of the largest and oldest organizations from violent conflict to religious matters.

Item Type:	Working or Discussion Paper (Working Paper)
Alternative Title:
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BX Christian Denominations D History General and Old World > DG Italy H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Papal States -- History, Papal States -- Econometric models, Cardinals -- History, Cardinals -- Econometric models
Series Name:	CAGE Online Working Paper Series
Publisher:	University of Warwick. Department of Economics
Official Date:	9 April 2014
Dates:	Date Event 9 April 2014 Available
Volume:	Volume 2014
Number:	Number 189
Number of Pages:	49
Status:	Not Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)

Request changes or add full text files to a record

Repository staff actions (login required)

View Item

Downloads