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Rearmament to the rescue? : new estimates of the impact of "Keynesian" policies in 1930s' Britain
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Crafts, N. F. R. and Mills, Terence C. (2013) Rearmament to the rescue? : new estimates of the impact of "Keynesian" policies in 1930s' Britain. The Journal of Economic History , Volume 73 (Number 4). pp. 1077-1104. doi:10.1017/S0022050713000880 ISSN 0022-0507.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022050713000880
Abstract
We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and “defense news.” We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have had a larger impact than a temporary public works program of similar magnitude if private investment anticipated the need to add capacity to cope with future defense spending.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | The Journal of Economic History | ||||||
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press | ||||||
ISSN: | 0022-0507 | ||||||
Official Date: | December 2013 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Volume 73 | ||||||
Number: | Number 4 | ||||||
Page Range: | pp. 1077-1104 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1017/S0022050713000880 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access |
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