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On predicting climate under climate change
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Daron, Joseph D. and Stainforth, David A. (2013) On predicting climate under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 8 (Number 3). Article number 034021. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021 ISSN 1748-9326.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021
Abstract
Can today's global climate model ensembles characterize the 21st century climate in their own 'model-worlds'? This question is at the heart of how we design and interpret climate model experiments for both science and policy support. Using a low-dimensional nonlinear system that exhibits behaviour similar to that of the atmosphere and ocean, we explore the implications of ensemble size and two methods of constructing climatic distributions, for the quantification of a model's climate. Small ensembles are shown to be misleading in non-stationary conditions analogous to externally forced climate change, and sometimes also in stationary conditions which reflect the case of an unforced climate. These results show that ensembles of several hundred members may be required to characterize a model's climate and inform robust statements about the relative roles of different sources of climate prediction uncertainty.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Physics | ||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Environmental Research Letters | ||||
Publisher: | IOP Publishing Ltd | ||||
ISSN: | 1748-9326 | ||||
Official Date: | 2013 | ||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Volume 8 | ||||
Number: | Number 3 | ||||
Article Number: | Article number 034021 | ||||
DOI: | 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021 | ||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) |
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