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Prediction of recurrences of mass coral bleaching / mortality and vulnerability of reef-building corals to climate change in Mauritian and Japanese waters
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Bhagooli, R. and Sheppard, Charles (Charles R. C.) (2012) Prediction of recurrences of mass coral bleaching / mortality and vulnerability of reef-building corals to climate change in Mauritian and Japanese waters. University of Mauritius research journal, Volume 18A . pp. 105-121.
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Official URL: http://vcampus.uom.ac.mu/rci/resjournal/specialiss...
Abstract
The bleaching / mortality response and prediction of recurrences of mass coral mortality in Japanese and Mauritian reef-building corals caused by climate change have yet to be explored thoroughly and incorporated into appropriate conservation and adaptive management strategies. We model likely “extinction dates” of live reefs from Okinawa and Ishigaki Islands of Japan, and one from Mauritius using historical and predicted surface seawater temperature (SST) data. Modelling of forecast SSTs at the two Japanese sites, where differential bleaching / mortalities occurred in 1998, revealed extinction dates of yrs 2000 - 2010 and 2070 - 2080 for Okinawan and Ishigaki reefs, respectively. On the other hand coral reefs of
Mauritius escaped the severe warming in 1998, most probably due to the massive cloud cover during the critical month. Based on the warmest temperature being about 28.7 that year (Hadisst data) (which did not cause mass bleaching) similar recurrence would occur about 2025.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | University of Mauritius research journal | ||||||
Publisher: | University of Mauritius | ||||||
Official Date: | 2012 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | Volume 18A | ||||||
Page Range: | pp. 105-121 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published |
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