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The Nosoi commute : a spatial perspective on the rise of BSL-4 laboratories in cities
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Van Boeckel, Thomas P., Tildesley, Michael J., Linard, Catherine, Halloy, José, Keeling, Matthew James and Gilbert, Marius (2013) The Nosoi commute : a spatial perspective on the rise of BSL-4 laboratories in cities. UNSPECIFIED. Cornell University: arXiv. (Unpublished)
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Abstract
Recent H5N1 influenza research has revived the debate on the storage and manipulation of
potentially harmful pathogens. In the last two decades, new high biosafety (BSL-4) laboratories
entered into operation, raising strong concerns from the public. The probability of an accidental
release of a pathogen from a BSL-4 laboratory is extremely low, but the corresponding risk -- defined
as the probability of occurrence multiplied by its impact -- could be significant depending on the
pathogen specificities and the population potentially affected. A list of BSL-4 laboratories throughout
the world, with their location and date of first activity, was established from publicly available
sources. This database was used to estimate the total population living within a daily commuting
distance of BSL-4 laboratories, and to quantify how this figure changed over time. We show that
from 1990 to present, the population living within the commuting belt of BSL-4 laboratories
increased by a factor of 4 to reach up to 1.8% of the world population, owing to an increase in the
number of facilities and their installation in cities. Europe is currently hosting the largest population
living in the direct vicinity of BSL-4 laboratories, while the recent building of new facilities in Asia
suggests that an important increase of the population living close to BSL-4 laboratories will be
observed in the next decades. We discuss the potential implications in term of global risk, and call for
better pathogen-specific quantitative assessment of the risk of outbreaks resulting from the
accidental release of potentially pandemic pathogens.
| Item Type: | Working or Discussion Paper (UNSPECIFIED) | ||||||
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| Alternative Title: | |||||||
| Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology | ||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Microbiological laboratories -- Safety measures, Biological laboratories -- Safety measures, Communicable diseases -- Research -- Safety measures, Microbiological laboratories -- Risk assessment , Biological laboratories -- Risk assessment , Communicable diseases -- Risk assessment | ||||||
| Publisher: | arXiv | ||||||
| Place of Publication: | Cornell University | ||||||
| Official Date: | 11 December 2013 | ||||||
| Dates: |
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| Number: | arXiv:1312.3283 | ||||||
| Number of Pages: | 16 | ||||||
| Status: | Not Peer Reviewed | ||||||
| Publication Status: | Unpublished | ||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
| Funder: | Belgian Fonds National pour la Recherche Scientifique | ||||||
| Open Access Version: |
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