Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre, Pulliam, Juliet Rachel Crowder, Funk, S., Truscott, James E., Isham, Valerie and Lloyd, Alun L. (2015) Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission : vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases. Epidemics, Volume 10 . pp. 16-20. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.007 ISSN 1755-4365.

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Abstract

Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of "evolution-proof" interventions against vector-borne disease.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Communicable diseases -- Transmission -- Mathematical models
Journal or Publication Title:	Epidemics
Publisher:	Elsevier BV
ISSN:	1755-4365
Official Date:	March 2015
Dates:	Date Event March 2015 Published 30 August 2014 Available 23 August 2014 Accepted 3 June 2014 Submitted
Volume:	Volume 10
Page Range:	pp. 16-20
DOI:	10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.007
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit:	27 December 2015
Date of first compliant Open Access:	27 December 2015
Funder:	United States. Department of Homeland Security. Science and Technology Directorate, Fogarty International Center. Research and Policy in Infectious Disease Dynamics Programme (RAPIDD), National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH), National Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust (London, England), Medical Research Council (Great Britain) (MRC)
Grant number:	R01-AI091980 (NIH), P01-AI098670 (NIH), 1246991 (NSF), 097830/Z/11/A-C (WT)

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