Amos, Gregory C. A., Gozzard, Emma , Carter, Charlotte E., Mead, A. (Andrew), Bowes, Mike J., Hawkey, P. M., Zhang, Lihong, Singer, Andrew C., Gaze, William H. and Wellington, E. M. H. (2015) Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome. The ISME Journal, 9 . p. 1467. doi:10.1038/ismej.2014.237

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Abstract

Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions:	Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Drug resistance in microorganisms -- Environmental aspects
Journal or Publication Title:	The ISME Journal
Publisher:	Nature Publishing Group
ISSN:	1751-7362
Official Date:	13 February 2015
Dates:	Date Event 13 February 2015 Available 3 November 2014 Accepted 24 June 2014 Submitted 27 October 2014 Modified
Date of first compliant deposit:	29 December 2015
Date of first compliant Open Access:	29 December 2015
Volume:	9
Number of Pages:	10
Page Range:	p. 1467
DOI:	10.1038/ismej.2014.237
Status:	Peer Reviewed
Publication Status:	Published
Access rights to Published version:	Open Access
Funder:	Natural Environment Research Council (Great Britain) (NERC), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Great Britain) (BBSRC), European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), European Science Foundation (ESF)
Grant number:	NE/E004482/1 (NERC)
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