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Coups d’état and defense spending : a counterfactual analysis
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Bove, Vincenzo and Nisticò, Roberto (2014) Coups d’état and defense spending : a counterfactual analysis. Public Choice, 161 (3-4). pp. 321-344. doi:10.1007/s11127-014-0202-2 ISSN 0048-5829.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-014-0202-2
Abstract
We explore how institutional set-ups, in particular changes in political institutions through coups d’état, can affect the way military expenditures are determined. We use a counterfactual approach, the synthetic control method, and compare the evolution of the military burden for 40 countries affected by coups with the evolution of a synthetic counterfactual that replicates the initial conditions and the potential outcomes of the countries of interest before exposure to coups. Our case studies suggest that successful coups result in a large increase in the military burden. However, when no effects or a decrease in the defense burden are found, it is often the consequence of a democratization process triggered by the coup. These results are in keeping with recent theoretical developments on the bargaining power of the military in authoritarian regimes. Failed coups, by contrast, produce a smaller, and mostly positive, effect on the military burden, possibly as a result of the incumbent’s strategy to avert further challenges to the stability of the regime by buying off the military.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance J Political Science > JC Political theory |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Politics and International Studies | ||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Armed Forces -- Appropriations and expenditures, Government spending policy, Coups d'état | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Public Choice | ||||||||
Publisher: | Springer | ||||||||
ISSN: | 0048-5829 | ||||||||
Official Date: | December 2014 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 161 | ||||||||
Number: | 3-4 | ||||||||
Number of Pages: | 24 | ||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 321-344 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1007/s11127-014-0202-2 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 31 December 2015 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 31 December 2015 |
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