Howarth, M. J. (1974) The dynamics of national economic systems. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

This thesis examines the behaviour of a number of macro-economic models starting initially with a simple linear formulation which is then developed systematically to embrace an increasing degree of economic sophistication and consequent mathematical complexity. The study is essentially an exercise in mathematical economics as opposed to econometrics, (the object being to explain behavioural characteristics rather than to extrapolate forecasts) and the techniques employed are those of systems dynamics.

Following the introductory remarks and definitions of Chapter 1, Chapter 2 deals exclusively with continuous linear models and their solutions, which permit a number of limited conclusions to be drawn concerning the rates of growth of certain key variables such as investment and output. However, in the presence of disturbances, exponential growth is merely a trend about which fluctuations will occur on account of the dynamic adjustment mechanisms which then come into play. Two such mechanisms are considered in the context of a number of further models in Chapter 3, which are designed in such a way as to permit at least approximate analytic solutions.

From this point in the thesis more detailed economic considerations (in particular the concept of a vintage technology) lead to the formulation of differential-delay equation models of a class which has hitherto received little attention in the literature. The basic models of this type are formulated in Chapter 4 which also examines the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium growth solutions. Having determined such solutions, Chapter 5 is concerned with the application of a number of standard control theory techniques as a means of establishing local stability conditions for equilibrium growth.

Chapter 6 is concerned generally with the digital computer solution of differential-delay equations and specifically with the simulation of an advanced national economy as represented by such a system of equations. A number of interesting numerical problems arise in the simulation for which data relating to the United Kingdom is used. Some results are presented and a full documentation of the simulation programs is given in the appendix.

Item Type:	Thesis (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Economics -- Mathematical models, Macroeconomics -- Mathematical models
Official Date:	1974
Dates:	Date Event 1974 Submitted
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Economics
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Parks, P. C. (Patrick Christopher) , Pyatt, Graham,1936-
Sponsors:	Warwickshire (England).|bEducation Department
Extent:	x, 180 leaves
Language:	eng

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