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Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases
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NTD Modelling Consortium (Including:
). (2015) Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases. Parasites & Vectors, 8 (1). 630 . doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1 ISSN 1756-3305.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1
Abstract
Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | R Medicine > R Medicine (General) R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Tropical medicine, Medical policy, Medical parasitology, Public health, Diseases -- Complications, Medicine, Preventive, Decision making -- Mathematical models | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Parasites & Vectors | ||||||||
Publisher: | BioMed Central Ltd. | ||||||||
ISSN: | 1756-3305 | ||||||||
Official Date: | 9 December 2015 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 8 | ||||||||
Number: | 1 | ||||||||
Article Number: | 630 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 16 December 2015 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 18 December 2015 | ||||||||
Funder: | Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, NTD Modelling Consortium, Novartis Foundation, Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (UK) (CIFF) |
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