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Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of Congo
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Rock, Kat S., Torr, Steve J., Lumbala, Crispin and Keeling, Matthew James (2015) Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Parasites & Vectors, 8 (1). 532. doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1131-8 ISSN 1756-3305.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-015-1131-8
Abstract
Background
The virulent vector-borne disease, Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), is one of several diseases targeted for elimination by the World Health Organization. This article utilises human case data from a high-endemicity region of the Democratic Republic of Congo in conjunction with a suite of novel mechanistic mathematical models to address the effectiveness of on-going active screening and treatment programmes and compute the likely time to elimination as a public health problem (i.e. <1 case per 10,000 per year).
Methods
The model variants address uncertainties surrounding transmission of HAT infection including heterogeneous risk of exposure to tsetse bites, non-participation of certain groups during active screening campaigns and potential animal reservoirs of infection.
Results
Model fitting indicates that variation in human risk of tsetse bites and participation in active screening play a key role in transmission of this disease, whilst the existence of animal reservoirs remains unclear. Active screening campaigns in this region are calculated to have been effective, reducing the incidence of new human infections by 52–53 % over a 15-year period (1998–2012). However, projections of disease dynamics in this region indicate that the elimination goal may not be met until later this century (2059–2092) under the current intervention strategy.
Conclusions
Improvements to active detection, such as screening those who have not previously participated and raising overall screening levels, as well as beginning widespread vector control in the area have the potential to ensure successful and timely elimination.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology | ||||||||
Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | African trypanosomiasis -- Congo (Democratic Republic), Parasitic diseases -- Mathematical models, Tropical medicine -- Mathematical models, African trypanosomiasis -- Prevention, African trypanosomiasis -- Epidemiology | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Parasites & Vectors | ||||||||
Publisher: | BioMed Central Ltd. | ||||||||
ISSN: | 1756-3305 | ||||||||
Official Date: | 22 October 2015 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 8 | ||||||||
Number: | 1 | ||||||||
Article Number: | 532 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1186/s13071-015-1131-8 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 18 January 2016 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 18 January 2016 | ||||||||
Funder: | Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Great Britain) (BBSRC) |
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