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Grid-scale fluctuations and forecast error in wind power
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Bel, G., Connaughton, Colm, Toots, M. and Bandi, M. M. (2016) Grid-scale fluctuations and forecast error in wind power. New Journal of Physics, 18 (2). 023015. doi:10.1088/1367-2630/18/2/023015 ISSN 1367-2630.
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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/18/2/023015
Abstract
Wind power fluctuations at the turbine and farm scales are generally not expected to be correlated over large distances. When power from distributed farms feeds the electrical grid, fluctuations from various farms are expected to smooth out. Using data from the Irish grid as a representative example, we analyze wind power fluctuations entering an electrical grid. We find that not only are grid-scale fluctuations temporally correlated up to a day, but they possess a self-similar structure—a signature of long-range correlations in atmospheric turbulence affecting wind power. Using the statistical structure of temporal correlations in fluctuations for generated and forecast power time series, we quantify two types of forecast error: a timescale error (${e}_{\tau }$) that quantifies deviations between the high frequency components of the forecast and generated time series, and a scaling error (${e}_{\zeta }$) that quantifies the degree to which the models fail to predict temporal correlations in the fluctuations for generated power. With no a priori knowledge of the forecast models, we suggest a simple memory kernel that reduces both the timescale error (${e}_{\tau }$) and the scaling error (${e}_{\zeta }$).
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QC Physics T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Research Centres > Centre for Complexity Science | ||||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Electric power distribution -- Effect of wind power plants on , Wind power -- Ireland, Wind power plants -- Statistics, Atmospheric pressure, Turbulence | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | New Journal of Physics | ||||||||
Publisher: | IOP Publishing | ||||||||
ISSN: | 1367-2630 | ||||||||
Official Date: | 1 February 2016 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 18 | ||||||||
Number: | 2 | ||||||||
Article Number: | 023015 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1088/1367-2630/18/2/023015 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 2 June 2016 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 6 June 2016 | ||||||||
Funder: | Seventh Framework Programme (European Commission) (FP7), Japan. Okinawa-Kagaku-Gijutsu-Kenkyū-Kiban-Seibi-Kikō [Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology] | ||||||||
Grant number: | (FP7/2007-2013) |
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