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Confirmation bias and electoral accountability
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Lockwood, Ben (2017) Confirmation bias and electoral accountability. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 11 (4). pp. 471-501. doi:10.1561/100.00016037 ISSN 1554-0626.
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Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1561/100.00016037
Abstract
This paper considers the implications of an important cognitive bias in information processing, confirmation bias, in a political agency setting. When voters have this bias and when only the politician's actions are observable before the election, it decreases pandering by the incumbent, and can raise voter welfare as a consequence. This result is driven by the fact that the noise aspect of confirmation bias, which decreases pandering, dominates the bounded rationality aspect, which increases it. The results generalize in several directions, including to the case where the voter can also observe payoffs with some probability before the election. We identify conditions when confirmation bias strengthens the case for decision-making by an elected rather than an appointed official.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Social Sciences > Economics | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Quarterly Journal of Political Science | ||||||
Publisher: | Now Publishers Inc. | ||||||
ISSN: | 1554-0626 | ||||||
Official Date: | 20 February 2017 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 11 | ||||||
Number: | 4 | ||||||
Page Range: | pp. 471-501 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1561/100.00016037 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | βThe final publication is available from now publishers via http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00016037" | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Restricted or Subscription Access | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 24 January 2017 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 10 July 2017 |
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