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Essential information : uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks
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Li, Shou-Li, Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Ferrari, Matthew J., Mummah, Riley, Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Tildesley, Michael J., Probert, William J. M. and Shea, Katriona (2017) Essential information : uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114 (22). pp. 5659-5664. 201617482. doi:10.1073/pnas.1617482114
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WRAP-Essential-uncertainty-optimal-Ebola-Tildesley-2017.pdf - Accepted Version - Requires a PDF viewer. Download (876Kb) | Preview |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617482114
Abstract
The 2014 Ebola outbreak illustrates the complexities of decision making in the face of explosive epidemics; management interventions must be enacted, despite imperfect or missing information. The wide range in projected caseload generated attention as a source of uncertainty, but debate did not address whether uncertainty affected choice of action. By reevaluating 37 published models, we show that most models concur that reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission are robust and effective management actions to minimize projected caseload. Although models disagreed about absolute caseload, this measure has little relevance for evaluating candidate interventions. Our study highlights the importance of projecting the impact of interventions and is applicable to management of other epidemic outbreaks where rapid decision making is critical.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science > Mathematics |
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| Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | ||||||||
| Publisher: | National Academy of Sciences | ||||||||
| ISSN: | 0027-8424 | ||||||||
| Official Date: | 30 May 2017 | ||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Date of first compliant deposit: | 16 May 2017 | ||||||||
| Volume: | 114 | ||||||||
| Number: | 22 | ||||||||
| Page Range: | pp. 5659-5664 | ||||||||
| Article Number: | 201617482 | ||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1073/pnas.1617482114 | ||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access | ||||||||
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