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Essential information : uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks

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Li, Shou-Li, Bjørnstad, Ottar N., Ferrari, Matthew J., Mummah, Riley, Runge, Michael C., Fonnesbeck, Christopher J., Tildesley, Michael J., Probert, William J. M. and Shea, Katriona (2017) Essential information : uncertainty and optimal control of Ebola outbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114 (22). pp. 5659-5664. 201617482. doi:10.1073/pnas.1617482114 ISSN 0027-8424.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617482114

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Abstract

The 2014 Ebola outbreak illustrates the complexities of decision making in the face of explosive epidemics; management interventions must be enacted, despite imperfect or missing information. The wide range in projected caseload generated attention as a source of uncertainty, but debate did not address whether uncertainty affected choice of action. By reevaluating 37 published models, we show that most models concur that reducing funeral transmission and reducing community transmission are robust and effective management actions to minimize projected caseload. Although models disagreed about absolute caseload, this measure has little relevance for evaluating candidate interventions. Our study highlights the importance of projecting the impact of interventions and is applicable to management of other epidemic outbreaks where rapid decision making is critical.

Item Type: Journal Article
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- )
Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
ISSN: 0027-8424
Official Date: 30 May 2017
Dates:
DateEvent
30 May 2017Published
15 May 2017Available
20 April 2017Accepted
Volume: 114
Number: 22
Page Range: pp. 5659-5664
Article Number: 201617482
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1617482114
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Open Access (Creative Commons)
Date of first compliant deposit: 16 May 2017
Date of first compliant Open Access: 15 December 2017
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