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Nuclear emergency decision support : a behavioural OR perspective

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Argyris, Nikolaos and French, Simon (2017) Nuclear emergency decision support : a behavioural OR perspective. European Journal of Operational Research, 262 (1). pp. 180-193. doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.059 ISSN 0377-2217.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.059

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Abstract

Operational researchers, risk and decision analysts need consider many behavioural issues. Despite many OR applications in nuclear emergency decision support, the literature has not paid sufficient attention to behavioural matters. In working on designing decision support processes for nuclear emergency management, we have encountered many behavioural issues. In this paper we synthesise the findings in the literature with our experience and identify a number of behavioural challenges to nuclear emergency decision support. In addition to challenges in model-building and interaction, we pay attention to a behavioural issue that is often neglected: the analysis itself and the communication of its implications may have behavioural consequences. We introduce proposals to address these challenges. First, we propose the use of models relying on incomplete preference information, outlining a framework and illustrating it with data from a previous decision analysis for the Chernobyl Project. Moreover, we reflect on the responsibility that rests on the analyst in addressing behavioural issues sensitively in order to lessen the effects on public stress. In doing so we make a distinction between System 1 Societal Deliberation and System 2 Societal Deliberation and discuss how this can help structure societal deliberation in the context of nuclear emergencies.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): Operations research, Nuclear power plants -- Accidents, Nuclear reactor accidents, Chernobyl Nuclear Accident, Chornobylʹ, Ukraine, 1986
Journal or Publication Title: European Journal of Operational Research
Publisher: Elsevier Science BV
ISSN: 0377-2217
Official Date: October 2017
Dates:
DateEvent
October 2017Published
30 March 2017Available
22 March 2017Accepted
Volume: 262
Number: 1
Page Range: pp. 180-193
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.059
Status: Peer Reviewed
Publication Status: Published
Access rights to Published version: Restricted or Subscription Access
Date of first compliant deposit: 18 May 2017
Date of first compliant Open Access: 30 March 2019
Funder: City University (London, England), University of Manchester, Open University, UK-India Civil Nuclear Power Collaboration (UKICNPC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
Grant number: EP/K007580/1 (EPSRC)

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