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Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte : a Bayesian modelling approach
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Métras, Raphaëlle, Fournié, Guillaume, Dommergues, Laure, Camacho, Anton, Cavalerie, Lisa, Mérot, Philippe, Keeling, Matthew James, Cêtre-Sossah, Catherine, Cardinale, Eric and Edmunds, W. John (2017) Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte : a Bayesian modelling approach. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11 (7). e0005767. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005767 ISSN 1935-2727.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005767
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major zoonotic and arboviral hemorrhagic fever. The conditions leading to RVF epidemics are still unclear, and the relative role of climatic and anthropogenic factors may vary between ecosystems. Here, we estimate the most likely scenario that led to RVF emergence on the island of Mayotte, following the 2006-2007 African epidemic. We developed the first mathematical model for RVF that accounts for climate, animal imports and livestock susceptibility, which is fitted to a 12-years dataset. RVF emergence was found to be triggered by the import of infectious animals, whilst transmissibility was approximated as a linear or exponential function of vegetation density. Model forecasts indicated a very low probability of virus endemicity in 2017, and therefore of re-emergence in a closed system (i.e. without import of infected animals). However, the very high proportion of naive animals reached in 2016 implies that the island remains vulnerable to the import of infectious animals. We recommend reinforcing surveillance in livestock, should RVF be reported is neighbouring territories. Our model should be tested elsewhere, with ecosystem-specific data.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | ||||||
SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Rift Valley fever , Communicable diseases--Mathematical models | ||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases | ||||||
Publisher: | Public Library of Science | ||||||
ISSN: | 1935-2727 | ||||||
Official Date: | 21 July 2017 | ||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 11 | ||||||
Number: | 7 | ||||||
Article Number: | e0005767 | ||||||
DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005767 | ||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||
Reuse Statement (publisher, data, author rights): | ** From PubMed via Jisc Publications Router. ** History: ** received: 02-03-2017 ** accepted: 30-06-2017 | ||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 3 August 2017 | ||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 3 August 2017 | ||||||
Funder: | France. Ministère de l'éducation nationale |
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