Global gradients of coral exposure to environmental stresses and implications for local management

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Abstract

Background: The decline of coral reefs globally underscores the need for a spatial assessment of their exposure to multiple
environmental stressors to estimate vulnerability and evaluate potential counter-measures.
Methodology/Principal Findings: This study combined global spatial gradients of coral exposure to radiation stress factors
(temperature, UV light and doldrums), stress-reinforcing factors (sedimentation and eutrophication), and stress-reducing
factors (temperature variability and tidal amplitude) to produce a global map of coral exposure and identify areas where
exposure depends on factors that can be locally managed. A systems analytical approach was used to define interactions
between radiation stress variables, stress reinforcing variables and stress reducing variables. Fuzzy logic and spatial
ordinations were employed to quantify coral exposure to these stressors. Globally, corals are exposed to radiation and
reinforcing stress, albeit with high spatial variability within regions. Based on ordination of exposure grades, regions group
into two clusters. The first cluster was composed of severely exposed regions with high radiation and low reducing stress
scores (South East Asia, Micronesia, Eastern Pacific and the central Indian Ocean) or alternatively high reinforcing stress
scores (the Middle East and the Western Australia). The second cluster was composed of moderately to highly exposed
regions with moderate to high scores in both radiation and reducing factors (Caribbean, Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Central
Pacific, Polynesia and the western Indian Ocean) where the GBR was strongly associated with reinforcing stress.
Conclusions/Significance: Despite radiation stress being the most dominant stressor, the exposure of coral reefs could be
reduced by locally managing chronic human impacts that act to reinforce radiation stress. Future research and management
efforts should focus on incorporating the factors that mitigate the effect of coral stressors until long-term carbon reductions
are achieved through global negotiations.

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