Journal Article

Nugent, Andrew, Southall, Emma and Dyson, Louise (2022) Exploring the role of the potential surface in the behaviour of early warning signals. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 554 . 111269. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111269 ISSN 0022-5193.

Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matt J. (2022) Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Medicine, 28 . pp. 2416-2423. doi:10.1038/s41591-022-02064-y ISSN 1078-8956.

Fongwen, Noah, Handley, Becca L., Martin, Diana L., Beiras, Camila, Dyson, Louise, Frimpong, Michael, Mitja, Oriol, Asiedu, Kingsley and Marks, Michael (2022) Diagnostics to support the eradication of yaws : development of two target product profiles. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16 (9). e0010554. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0010554 ISSN 1935-2727.

Keeling, Matt J., Dyson, Louise, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, Semple, Malcolm G., Tildesley, Michael J. and Hill, Edward M. (2022) Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number. Statistical Methods in Medical Research , 31 (9). pp. 1716-1737. doi:10.1177/09622802211070257 ISSN 0962-2802.

Keeling, Matthew James, Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., Hill, Edward M. and Moore, Sam (2022) Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England. Nature Communications, 13 . 4924. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31991-0 ISSN 2041-1723.

Tildesley, Michael J., Vassall, Anna, Riley, Steven, Jit, Mark, Sandmann, Frank, Hill, Edward M., Thompson, Robin N., Atkins, Benjamin D., Edmunds, John, Dyson, Louise and Keeling, Matt J. (2022) Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England : a mathematical modelling study. Royal Society Open Science, 9 (8). 211746. doi:10.1098/rsos.211746 ISSN 2054-5703.

Leng, Trystan, Hill, Edward M., Thompson, Robin N., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Assessing the impact of lateral flow testing strategies on within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission and absences : a modelling study. PLOS Computational Biology, 18 (5). e1010158. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010158 ISSN 1553-7358.

Leng, Trystan, Hill, Edward M., Holmes, Alexander, Southall, Emma, Thompson, Robin N., Tildesley, Michael J., Keeling, Matt J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools. Nature Communications, 13 (1). 1106. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28731-9 ISSN 2041-1723.

Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2022) Approximating steady state distributions for household structured epidemic models. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 534 . 110974. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110974 ISSN 0022-5193.

Keeling, Matthew James, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J., Hill, Edward M. and Medley, Graham F. (2021) Precautionary breaks : planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease. Epidemics, 37 . 100526. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100526 ISSN 1755-4365.

Sachak-Patwa, Rahil, Byrne, Helen M., Dyson, Louise and Thompson, Robin N. (2021) The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions. Communications Medicine, 1 . 39. doi:10.1038/s43856-021-00038-8 ISSN 2730-664X.

Dyson, Louise, Hill, Edward M., Moore, Sam, Curran-Sebastian, Jacob, Tildesley, Michael J., Lythgoe, Katrina A., House, Thomas, Pellis, Lorenzo and Keeling, Matthew James (2021) Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics. Nature Communications, 12 . 5730. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7 ISSN 2041-1723.

Hill, Edward M., Atkins, Benjamin D., Keeling, Matt J., Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2021) Modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a UK university setting. Epidemics, 36 . 100476. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100476 ISSN 1755-4365.

Enright, Jessica, Hill, Edward M., Stage, Helena B., Bolton, Kirsty J., Nixon, Emily J., Fairbanks, Emma L., Tang, Maria L., Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Dyson, Louise, Budd, Chris J., Hoyle, Rebecca B., Schewe, Lars, Gog, Julia R. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students : lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return. Royal Society Open Science , 8 (8). 210310. doi:10.1098/rsos.210310 ISSN 2054-5703.

Keeling, Matt J., Tildesley, Michael J., Atkins, Benjamin D., Penman, Bridget S., Southall, Emma, Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, McKimm, Hector, Gorsich, Erin E., Hill, Edward M. and Dyson, Louise (2021) The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 376 (1829). 20200261. doi:10.1098/rstb.2020.0261 ISSN 0962-8436.

Hill, Edward M., Atkins, Benjamin D., Keeling, Matt J., Dyson, Louise and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) A network modelling approach to assess non-pharmaceutical disease controls in a worker population : an application to SARS-CoV-2. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (6). e1009058. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009058 ISSN 1553-7358.

Southall, Emma, Holmes, Alexander, Hill, Edward M., Atkins, Benjamin D., Leng, Trystan, Thompson, Robin N., Dyson, Louise, Keeling, Matthew James and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC Medicine, 19 (1). 137. doi:10.1186/s12916-021-01990-x ISSN 1741-7015.

Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Tildesley, Michael J., Dyson, Louise and Keeling, Matt J. (2021) Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 : a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 21 (6). pp. 793-802. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00143-2 ISSN 1473-3099.

Lowe-Power, Tiffany, Dyson, Louise and Polter, Abigail M. (2021) A generation of junior faculty is at risk from the impacts of COVID-19. PLoS Biology, 19 (5). e3001266. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001266 ISSN 1545-7885.

Challen, Robert, Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Read, Jonathan M., Dyson, Louise, Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira and Danon, Leon (2021) Risk of mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1 : matched cohort study. BMJ, 372 . n579. doi:10.1136/bmj.n579 ISSN 0959-535X.

Keeling, Matt J., Hill, Edward M., Gorsich, Erin E., Penman, Bridget S., Guyver-Fletcher, Glen, Holmes, Alexander, Leng, Trystan, McKimm, Hector, Tamborrino, Massimiliano, Dyson, Louise and Tildesley, Michael J. (2021) Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK : short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (1). e1008619. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008619 ISSN 1553-7358.

Moore, Sam, Hill, Edward M., Dyson, Louise, Tildesley, Michael J. and Keeling, Matt J. (2021) Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. PLoS Computational Biology, 17 (5). e1008849. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008849 ISSN 1553-7358.

Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J., Solomon, Anthony W., Mabey, David C. W., Sokana, Oliver, Marks, Michael and Dyson, Louise (2020) Modelling treatment strategies to inform Yaws eradication. Emerging Infectious Diseases , 26 (11). pp. 2685-2693. doi:10.3201/eid2611.191491 ISSN 1080-6059.

Southall, Emma, Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2020) Prospects for detecting early warning signals in discrete event sequence data : application to epidemiological incidence data. PLoS Computational Biology, 16 (9). e1007836. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007836 ISSN 1553-7358.

Dessavre, Adjani Gama, Southall, Emma, Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2019) The problem of detrending when analysing potential indicators of disease elimination. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 481 . pp. 183-193. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.04.011 ISSN 0022-5193.

Dyson, Louise, Mooring, Eric Q., Holmes, Alexander, Tildesley, Michael J. and Marks, Michael (2019) Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for yaws. Gates Open Research, 3 . 1576. doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13078.1 ISSN 2572-4754.

Dyson, Louise, Holmes, Alexander, Li, Ang and Kulesa, Paul M. (2018) A chemotactic model of trunk neural crest cell migration. Genesis: The Journal of Genetics and Development, 56 (9). e23239. doi:10.1002/dvg.23239 ISSN 1526-954X.

Dyson, Louise and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2018) Diagnosing risk factors alongside mass drug administration using serial diagnostic tests - which test first? Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 112 (7). pp. 342-348. doi:10.1093/trstmh/try062 ISSN 0035-9203.

Dyson, Louise, Marks, Michael, Crook, Oliver M., Sokana, Oliver, Solomon, Anthony W., Bishop, Alex, Mabey, David C. W. and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2018) Targeted treatment of yaws with contact tracing : how much do we miss? American Journal of Epidemiology, 184 (4). pp. 837-844. doi:10.1093/aje/kwx305 ISSN 0002-9262.

Dyson, Louise, Stolk, Wilma, Farrell, Sam H. and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2017) Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration. Epidemics, 18 . pp. 56-66. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.002 ISSN 1755-4365.

Lafuerz, Luis F., Dyson, Louise, Edmonds, Bruce and McKane, Alan J. (2016) Simplification and analysis of a model of social interaction in voting. Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, 89 (7). 159. ISSN 1434-6028.

Lafuerza, Luis F., Dyson, Louise, Edmonds, Bruce and McKane, Alan J. (2016) Staged models for interdisciplinary research. PLoS One, 11 (6). e0157261. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0157261 ISSN 1932-6203.

NTD Modelling Consortium (Including:

). (2015) Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases. Parasites & Vectors, 8 (1). 630 . doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1235-1 ISSN 1756-3305.

Dyson, Louise, Yates, Christian A., Buhl, Jerome and McKane, Alan J. (2015) Onset of collective motion in locusts is captured by a minimal model. Physical Review E, 92 (5). 052708 . doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.92.052708 ISSN 1539-3755.

Chapman, Lloyd A. C., Dyson, Louise, Courtenay, Orin, Chowdhury, Rajib, Bern, Caryn, Medley, Graham and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2015) Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control. Parasites & Vectors, 8 (1). pp. 1-13. 521. doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1136-3 ISSN 1756-3305.

Dyson, Louise and Baker, Ruth E. (2015) The importance of volume exclusion in modelling cellular migration. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 71 (3). pp. 691-711. doi:10.1007/s00285-014-0829-0 ISSN 0303-6812.

Biancalani, Tommaso, Dyson, Louise and McKane, Alan J. (2015) The statistics of fixation times for systems with recruitment. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2015 (1). P01013. doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2015/01/P01013 ISSN 1742-5468.

Biancalani, Tommaso, Dyson, Louise and McKane, Alan J. (2014) Noise-induced bistable states and their mean switching time in foraging colonies. Physical Review Letters, 112 (3). 038101. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.112.038101 ISSN 0031-9007.

Dyson, Louise, Maini, Philip K. and Baker, Ruth E. (2012) Macroscopic limits of individual-based models for motile cell populations with volume exclusion. Physical Review E, 86 (3). 031903 . doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.86.031903 ISSN 1539-3755.

Collins-Hooper, Henry, Woolley, Thomas E., Dyson, Louise, Patel, Anand, Potter, Paul, Baker, Ruth E., Gaffney, Eamonn A., Maini, Philip K., Dash, Philip R. and Patel, Ketan (2012) Age-related changes in speed and mechanism of adult skeletal muscle stem cell migration. Stem Cells, 30 (6). pp. 1182-1195. doi:10.1002/stem.1088 ISSN 1066-5099.

Tindall, Marcus J., Dyson, Louise, Smallbone, Kieran and Maini, Philip K. (2012) Modelling acidosis and the cell cycle in multicellular tumour spheroids. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 298 . pp. 107-115. doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.11.009 ISSN 0022-5193.

McLennan, R., Dyson, Louise, Prather, K. W., Morrison, J. A., Baker, R. E., Maini, P. K. and Kulesa, P. M. (2012) Multiscale mechanisms of cell migration during development : theory and experiment. Development , 139 (16). pp. 2935-2944. doi:10.1242/dev.081471 ISSN 0950-1991.

Journal Item

Dyson, Louise (2022) Modelling results on the impact of COVID-19 testing in schools. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 22 (7). pp. 915-916. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00163-3

Southall, Emma, Brett, Tobias S., Tildesley, Michael J. and Dyson, Louise (2021) Early warning signals of infectious disease transitions : a review. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 18 (182). 20210555. doi:10.1098/rsif.2021.0555

Clark, Jessica, Stolk, Wilma A., Basáñez, Maria-Gloria, Coffeng, Luc E., Cucunubá, Zulma M., Dixon, Matthew A., Dyson, Louise, Hampson, Katie, Marks, Michael, Medley, Graham F., Pollington, Timothy M., Prada, Joaquín M., Rock, Kat S., Salje, Henrik, Toor, Jaspreet and Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre (2021) How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]. Gates Open Research, 5 . 112. doi:10.12688/gatesopenres.13327.2