Rahilly, John (2020) A green and pleasant land? An exploration of the impact associated with planning policy. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.

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Abstract

The consumption of green space land due to urban development has evolved to become a key global concern. Whilst assumed to be a critical component in the control of land change, national planning policies have largely been omitted from analyses. Explorations of the effects associated with the transition between policy frameworks may therefore be considered a crucial element in advancing our understanding of the relationship.

This thesis applies novel statistical techniques to analyse the effects attributable to the introduction of the Localism Act 2011 and National Planning Policy Framework, using green space as a primary indicator.

An initial analysis of green space loss using exploratory methods and Change Point Detection identified the existence of different structural patterns within the data, associable with the introduction of the revised policy framework. It further challenged extant concepts of the temporal dynamics of policy impact, suggesting evidence of increased land loss within 2 years.

Through Interrupted Time Series Analysis using dynamic linear models a policy intervention effect was obtained, which reported the policy to have led to a significant increased loss of green space, based upon both area and as a proportion of rates of residential development, intended to account for the underlying effect of economic drivers.

A final element of research evidenced a paradigmatic shift from a policy of urban containment to one permissive of expansion into the proximate rural periphery, using multiple datasets. Rates of green space and ‘brownfield’ development within urban boundaries were shown to have seen minimal effects under the revised framework. However, green space situated outside of said boundary was lost at an average rate 177% greater than under the preceding framework.

The research constitutes the first to provide robust empirical evidence that the policy reform impacted upon rates and patterns of land change. In so doing offering new insight with which to augment understanding of the functional dynamics of policy in the regulation of land use.

Item Type:	Thesis or Dissertation (PhD)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Electronic computers. Computer science. Computer software
Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH):	Greenways, Open spaces, City planning, Land use -- Planning, Urban policy, Brownfields
Official Date:	November 2020
Dates:	Date Event November 2020 UNSPECIFIED
Institution:	University of Warwick
Theses Department:	Department of Computer Science
Thesis Type:	PhD
Publication Status:	Unpublished
Supervisor(s)/Advisor:	Albuquerque, João Porto de
Sponsors:	Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Format of File:	pdf
Extent:	xxi, 340 leaves : illustrations
Language:	eng

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