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Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data
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(2021) Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data. Wellcome Open Research, 6 . 127. doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3
Abstract
Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QP Physiology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine R Medicine > RB Pathology |
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| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Kenya, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Diagnosis -- Kenya, Polymerase chain reaction, Polymerase chain reaction -- Diagnostic use -- Kenya | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Wellcome Open Research | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publisher: | F1000Research | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 2398-502X | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 25 May 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 127 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 15 November 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 15 November 2022 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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| Is Part Of: | 1 |
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