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Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria
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McKendrick, James, Tennant, Warren S. D. and Tildesley, Michael J. (2023) Modelling seasonality of Lassa fever incidences and vector dynamics in Nigeria. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 17 (11). e0011543. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543 ISSN 1935-2727.
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Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543
Abstract
Lassa fever (Lf) is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to West Africa and is caused by the Lassa mammarenavirus. The rodent Mastomys natalensis serves as the primary reservoir and its ecology and behaviour have been linked to the distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the incidence of Lf. Nigeria has experienced an unprecedented epidemic that lasted from January until April of 2018, which has been followed by subsequent epidemics of Lf in the same period every year since. While previous research has modelled the case seasonality within Nigeria, this did not capture the seasonal variation in the reproduction of the zoonotic reservoir and its effect on case numbers. To this end, we introduce an approximate Bayesian computation scheme to fit our model to the case data from 2018–2020 supplied by the NCDC. In this study we used a periodically forced seasonal nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equations as a vector model to demonstrate that the population dynamics of the rodent reservoir may be responsible for the spikes in the number of observed cases in humans. The results show that in December through to March, spillover from the zoonotic reservoir drastically increases and spreads the virus to the people of Nigeria. Therefore to effectively combat Lf, attention and efforts should be concentrated during this period.
Item Type: | Journal Article | |||||||||
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Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QR Microbiology R Medicine > RC Internal medicine |
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Life Sciences (2010- ) Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics |
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Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Lassa fever, Lassa fever virus , Lassa fever -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models , Lassa fever -- Epidemiology -- Mathematical models -- Nigeria, Lassa fever virus -- Forecasting -- Mathematical models -- Nigeria, Mathematical models | |||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases | |||||||||
Publisher: | Public Library of Science | |||||||||
ISSN: | 1935-2727 | |||||||||
Official Date: | 13 November 2023 | |||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 17 | |||||||||
Number: | 11 | |||||||||
Article Number: | e0011543 | |||||||||
DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011543 | |||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | |||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | |||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | |||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 20 November 2023 | |||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 22 November 2023 | |||||||||
RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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