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Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model
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Margazoglou, Georgios, Grafke, Tobias, Laio, Alessandro and Lucarini, Valerio (2021) Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 477 (2250). 20210019. doi:10.1098/rspa.2021.0019 ISSN 1364-5021.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2021.0019
Abstract
We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyse their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasi-potentials, and viewing the state space as an energy landscape with valleys and mountain ridges, we infer the relative likelihood of the identified multistable climate states and investigate the most likely transition trajectories as well as the expected transition times between them. Second, harnessing techniques from data science, and specifically manifold learning, we characterize the data landscape of the simulation output to find climate states and basin boundaries within a fully agnostic and unsupervised framework. Both approaches show remarkable agreement, and reveal, apart from the well known warm and snowball earth states, a third intermediate stable state in one of the two versions of PLASIM, the climate model used in this study. The combination of our approaches allows to identify how the negative feedback of ocean heat transport and entropy production via the hydrological cycle drastically change the topography of the dynamical landscape of Earth’s climate.
| Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||||||
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| Subjects: | Q Science > QC Physics | ||||||||||||
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Mathematics | ||||||||||||
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Climatology, Climatology -- Mathematical models, Climatology -- Statistical methods, Climatic changes, Dynamic meteorology | ||||||||||||
| Journal or Publication Title: | Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences | ||||||||||||
| Publisher: | The Royal Society Publishing | ||||||||||||
| ISSN: | 1364-5021 | ||||||||||||
| Official Date: | 30 June 2021 | ||||||||||||
| Dates: |
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| Volume: | 477 | ||||||||||||
| Number: | 2250 | ||||||||||||
| Article Number: | 20210019 | ||||||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1098/rspa.2021.0019 | ||||||||||||
| Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||||||
| Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||||||
| Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||||||
| Copyright Holders: | © 2021 The Authors | ||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant deposit: | 16 June 2021 | ||||||||||||
| Date of first compliant Open Access: | 16 June 2021 | ||||||||||||
| RIOXX Funder/Project Grant: |
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