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Individual participant data from digital sources informed and improved precision in the evaluation of predictive biomarkers in Bayesian network meta-analysis
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Umemneku-Chikere, Chinyereugo M, Wheaton, Lorna, Poad, Heather, Ray, Devleena, Andrade, Ilse Cuevas, Khan, Sam, Tappenden, Paul, Abrams, Keith R., Owen, Rhiannon K and Bujkiewicz, Sylwia (2023) Individual participant data from digital sources informed and improved precision in the evaluation of predictive biomarkers in Bayesian network meta-analysis. Journal of clinical epidemiology, 164 . pp. 96-103. doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.10.018 ISSN 1878-5921.
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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.10.018
Abstract
We aimed to develop a network meta-analytic model for the evaluation of treatment effectiveness within predictive biomarker subgroups, by combining evidence from individual participant data (IPD) from digital sources (in the absence of RCTs) and aggregate data (AD). And Setting: A Bayesian framework was developed for modelling time-to-event data to evaluate predictive biomarkers. IPD were sourced from electronic health records, using a target trial emulation approach, or digitised Kaplan-Meier curves. The model is illustrated using two examples: breast cancer with a hormone receptor biomarker, and metastatic colorectal cancer with the Kirsten Rat Sarcoma (KRAS) biomarker. The model allowed for the estimation of treatment effects in two subgroups of patients defined by their biomarker status. Effectiveness of taxanes did not differ in hormone receptor positive and negative breast cancer patients. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitors were more effective than chemotherapy in KRAS wild type colorectal cancer patients but not in patients with KRAS mutant status. Use of IPD reduced uncertainty of the subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates by up to 49%. Utilisation of IPD allowed for more detailed evaluation of predictive biomarkers and cancer therapies and improved precision of the estimates compared to use of AD alone.
Item Type: | Journal Article | ||||||||
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Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Engineering and Medicine > Science > Statistics | ||||||||
SWORD Depositor: | Library Publications Router | ||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of clinical epidemiology | ||||||||
Publisher: | Elsevier | ||||||||
ISSN: | 1878-5921 | ||||||||
Official Date: | December 2023 | ||||||||
Dates: |
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Volume: | 164 | ||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 96-103 | ||||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.10.018 | ||||||||
Status: | Peer Reviewed | ||||||||
Publication Status: | Published | ||||||||
Access rights to Published version: | Open Access (Creative Commons) | ||||||||
Date of first compliant deposit: | 17 January 2024 | ||||||||
Date of first compliant Open Access: | 17 January 2024 |
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