Wright, Sophia K. (2019) Robustness in Bayesian networks. PhD thesis, University of Warwick.
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Abstract
This thesis explores the robustness of large discrete Bayesian networks (BNs) when applied in decision support systems which have a pre-specified subset of target variables. We develop new methodology, underpinned by the total variation distance, to determine whether simplifications which are currently employed in the practical implementation of such systems are theoretically valid. This versatile framework enables us to study the effects of misspecification within a Bayesian network (BN), and also extend the methodology to quantify temporal effects within Dynamic BNs. Unlike current robustness analyses, our new technology can be applied throughout the construction of the BN model; enabling us to create tailored, bespoke models. For illustrative purposes we shall be applying our work to the field of Food Security and a demonstrative ecological network.
| Item Type: | Thesis [via Doctoral College] (PhD) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Library of Congress Subject Headings (LCSH): | Bayesian statistical decision theory, Decision support systems, Robust control, Food security |
| Official Date: | February 2019 |
| Dates: | Date Event February 2019 UNSPECIFIED |
| Institution: | University of Warwick |
| Theses Department: | Department of Statistics |
| Thesis Type: | PhD |
| Publication Status: | Unpublished |
| Supervisor(s)/Advisor: | Smith, J. Q., 1953- |
| Sponsors: | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council |
| Format of File: | |
| Extent: | xi, 97 leaves : illustrations |
| Language: | eng |
| URI: | https://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/131938/ |
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