Public debt sustainability and EMU : theory and some evidence

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Abstract

The thesis focuses on the interaction between default and inflation risk on
public debt bonds. We lighten the trade-off between flexibility to adverse shocks
and credibility, in the debt management field, and identify the conditions under
which the credibility effect can be dominant.
EMU is now fully operating, including most of the European candidates
that have been let in under a more relaxed interpretation of the Maasticht Treaty
criteria. In particular, the debt criterion originally set at 60% of the GDP, was
reinterpreted to require a debtlGDP ratio declining towards the target. As some of
the countries have levels of debt above 100% of GDP (Belgium and Italy) and as
European Central Bank is committed to price stability, what does giving up
inflation imply for post-EMU debt management?

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